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Market Talk – August 2, 2022


ASIA:

Factory activity in India grew at the fastest pace in eight months in July, driven by solid growth in new orders and output as demand continued to improve on the back of easing price pressures, a private survey showed. The survey results suggest that India’s economy has remained resilient, at least for now, despite fears of faster interest rate hikes, massive capital outflows, a weakening rupee, and a rapidly slowing global economy. The manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (INPMI=ECI), compiled by S&P Global, jumped to 56.4 in July from 53.9 in June, remaining above the 50 level that separates growth from contraction for the thirteenth month. The RBI, which has already raised its key interest rate by a cumulative 90 basis points since early May, is expected to raise it again this week.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has cut its economic growth forecast for Singapore, in line with its recent warning that it will cut its estimates for the global economy later this month. The IMF said Singapore’s economy will grow by 3.7 percent this year, in a country report issued on Friday (July 22) after consultations with local officials. The IMF said the pace of growth will be slower this year compared to a 7.6 percent increase in 2021 as trade-related sectors may moderate due to supply constraints, while recovery in the worst-hit sectors – tourism and aviation, consumer goods and construction – she just started. However, the IMF kept its forecast for Singapore’s headline inflation at 4.8 percent, which includes all goods and services.

 

The major Asian stock markets had a mixed day today:

 

  • NIKKEI 225 decreased 398.62 points or -1.42% to 27,594.73

 

  • Shanghai decreased 73.69 points or -2.26% to 3,186.27

 

  • Hang Seng decreased 476.63 points or -2.36% to 19,689.21

 

  • ASX 200 increased 5.10 points or 0.07% to 6,998.10

 

  • Kospi decreased 12.63 points or -0.52% to 2,439.62

 

  • SENSEX increased 20.86 points or 0.04% to 58,136.36

 

  • Nifty50 increased 5.40 points or 0.03% to 17,345.45

 

The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:

 

  • AUDUSD decreased 0.00944 or -1.34% to 0.69314

 

  • NZDUSD decreased 0.0065 or -1.03% to 0.62660

 

  • USDJPY increased 1.360 or 1.03% to 132.903

 

  • USDCNY decreased 0.02295 or -0.34% to 6.76135

 

Precious Metals:

 

l Gold decreased 4.74 USD/t oz. or -0.27% to 1,765.21

 

l Silver decreased 0.303 USD/t. oz or -1.49% to 20.006

 

Some economic news from last night:

 

Japan:

 

Monetary Base (YoY) decreased from 3.9% to 2.8%

 

South Korea:

 

CPI (YoY) (Jul) increased from 6.0% to 6.3%

 

CPI (MoM) (Jul) decreased from 0.6% to 0.5%

 

Australia:

 

Building Approvals (MoM) (Jun) decreased from 11.2% to -0.7%

 

Home Loans (MoM) decreased from 2.1% to -3.3%

 

Invest Housing Finance (MoM) decreased from 0.9% to -6.3%

 

Private House Approvals (Jun) increased from -2.1% to 1.2%

 

Some economic news from today:

 

India:

 

Exports (USD) (Jul) remain the same at 35.24B

 

Imports (USD) (Jul) remain the same at 66.26B

 

Trade Balance (Jul) decreased from 31.02B to -31.02B

 

Hong Kong:

 

Retail Sales (YoY) (Jun) increased from -1.7% to -1.2%

 

Australia:

 

RBA Interest Rate Decision (Aug) increased from 1.35% to 1.85%

 

Commodity Prices (YoY) decreased from 29.2% to 14.1%

 

New Zealand:

 

GlobalDairyTrade Price Index remain the same at -5.0%

 

EUROPE/EMEA:

The Bank of England is expected to make its biggest rate hike in 27 years this week, unwinding some of the £895bn ($1.1tn) stimulus it has provided over the past decade. The move would accelerate a historic tightening of monetary policy to quell the worst inflation spike in 40 years. Gov. Andrew Bailey and his colleagues have warned that prices could rise 11% this year, well above his 2% target. The investor sees a 70% chance that his BOE in the benchmark will rise 0.5 points to 1.75%. This is the highest since the 2009 global financial crisis. Most economists see a move of this magnitude again this week, but some economists say Morgan Stanley and NatWest Markets have seen a 4-point drop, citing heightened risks of a recession. said to be of high quality.

The major Europe stock markets had a negative day:

 

l CAC 40 decreased 27.06 points or -0.42% to 6,409.80

 

l FTSE 100 decreased 4.31 points or -0.06% to 7,409.11

 

l DAX 30 decreased 30.43 points or -0.23% to 13,449.20

 

The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today:

 

  • EURUSD decreased 0.00834 or -0.81% to 1.01803

 

  • GBPUSD decreased 0.00726 or -0.59% to 1.21811

 

  • USDCHF increased 0.00687 or 0.72% to 0.95637

 

Some economic news from Europe today:

 

UK:

 

Nationwide HPI (MoM) (Jul) decreased from 0.2% to 0.1%

 

Nationwide HPI (YoY) (Jul) increased from 10.7% to 11.0%

 

Swiss:

 

SECO Consumer Climate (Q3) decreased from -18 to -28

 

procure.ch PMI (Jul) decreased from 59.1 to 58.0

 

Spain:

 

Spanish Unemployment Change increased from -42.4K to 3.2K

 

Spanish Consumer Confidence decreased from 65.8 to 55.5

US/AMERICAS:

A new study found that retailers in America are expanding despite inflation and recession fears. The largest mall owner in America, Simon Property Group, reported 93.9% occupancy at its malls and outlets this June, an uptick from last year’s reading of 01.8%. The group said places like Florida and Los Vegas are fueling the rebound where tourists are eager to spend. US retailers have opened 4,432 stores in 2022, compared to 1,954 closings. The retail industry only managed to add a net of 68 new stores last year, making this a dramatic improvement.

The ”Great Resignation” may still be underway in the US as 4.2 million people quit their jobs in June. Around 10.7 million new job openings became available in June, down from 11.3 million the month prior, but marks a 50% increase YoY. There are currently 1.8 job openings for every unemployed American. People are striving for better jobs and using the worker shortage to their advantage. New hires reached 6.4 million, offsetting the number of quits. The unemployment rate in June remained steady at 3.6%.

US Market Closings:

  • Dow declined 402.23 points or -1.23% to 32,396.17
  • S&P 500 declined 27.44 points or -0.67% to 4,091.19
  • Nasdaq declined 20.22 points or -0.16% to 12,348.76
  • Russell 2000

 

Canada Market Closings:

 

Brazil Market Closing:

 

ENERGY:

 

The oil markets had a mixed day today:

 

l Crude Oil increased 0.55 USD/BBL or 0.59% to 94.501

 

l Brent increased 0.49 USD/BBL or 0.49% to 100.320

 

l Natural gas decreased 0.526 USD/MMBtu or -6.35% to 7.7664

 

l Gasoline increased 0.0623 USD/GAL or 2.08% to 3.0588

 

l Heating oil decreased 0.067 USD/GAL or -1.95% to 3.3799

 

The above data was collected around 14:26 EST on Tuesday

 

l Top commodity gainers: Gasoline (2.08%), Potatoes(2.70%), Orange Juice (1.23%) and Rhodium (1.74%)

 

l Top commodity losers: Palladium (-6.07%), Canola (-5.75%), Oat (-6.75%) and Natural Gas (-6.35%)

 

The above data was collected around 14:33 EST on Tuesday.

 

BONDS:

 

Japan 0.175%(-1bp), US 2’s 3.07% (+0.164%), US 10’s 2.7392% (+13.42bps); US 30’s 2.99% (+0.064%), Bunds 0.7820% (+2.1bp), France 1.3790% (+3.3bp), Italy 3.031% (+4.5bp), Turkey 17.00% (+0bp), Greece 2.957% (+3.9bp), Portugal 1.887% (+10bp); Spain 1.934% (+7.7bp) and UK Gilts 1.8660% (+5.8bp).

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